It would be arrogant to assert omniscience or even foresight, thus these are not predictions. However, rather than predicting what will happen, here are five patterns that are more related to how people could feel about the globe.
Using Gramsci’s concept of an interregnum—the period between the dissolution of an old order and the formation of a new one—to characterize the present has become cliched. This idea has some merit. On a separate note, it provides some solace. Past events still point in a certain way. Something new is about to begin, and this is the time of transition. Two obstacles, though, must be overcome. The first is to establish the beginning of the interregnum. What we consider to be crucial will determine that. Did the financial crisis of 2008 play a role? Could artificial intelligence signal a sea change in humanity’s future? The growth of populism, perhaps? Is it the retreat from globalization that is happening? Could conflict be breaking out again? Is the carbon economy about to collapse?
But the most critical question is: where are we going? Is it truly a directionally-oriented interregnum? Another possibility is that it’s just a constant ebb and flow: one terrible incident following another. The editors of The Indian Express requested my input on five trends to keep an eye on in the year 2025. It would be arrogant to assert omniscience or even foresight, thus these are not predictions. However, rather than predicting what will happen, here are five patterns that are more related to how people could feel about the globe.
Years have long been linked with many markers: planetary placements, astrological omens, and various animals. This has led to the Age of Conspiracy. However, as is fitting for our era, cosmic markers may no longer constitute the yardstick by which we judge our reality. The defining feature of our time, the mood, will instead be present. Conspiratorial seems to be the prevailing tone for 2025 over most of the globe, particularly in its two democracies, the United States and India.
Even in democracies, conspiracy theories have cast a shadow over political debates. We don’t have enough data to say whether or not conspiracy theory belief is on the rise. When established paradigms break down, such hypotheses seem more reasonable. But there will be two main emotions. At least half of their people will think the world is about to end because of something. Secondly, these demonic beings, ethnic groupings, minor cabals, or even nonexistent deep states will be responsible for this disaster.
See Also: Diplomacy in a Complex World: A Look Ahead to 2025
When you mix the two, you get people who want to demonize certain groups, attack imaginary power brokers, and find hidden agendas in seemingly innocuous political acts. Political discourse will become even more precarious, accusatory, and fraught with existential dangers as a result.
During this communist era, democracy and nationalism have taken a back seat in India. There has been a steady decrease in communal violence for nearly twenty years, beginning in the 1990s. The trend, however, is turning around. Do not assume that some shadowy organization is plotting this. It is a truth that is becoming more apparent in sociology. Additionally, the most powerful segments of society now automatically identify with it ideologically.
It will be more challenging to stem the tide of exacerbated divisions, mended community scars, and broad acceptance of racist ideology. It is, nevertheless, simmering away. Our political consciousness is reminiscent of the crumbling of a communal settlement in the 1930s or 1940s. More domestic communalism may be possible as a result of current trends as well as the worldwide legitimization of right-wing politics. The strong sense of foreboding that has been building up should not be concealed by the lack of large-scale overt violence up until this point.
We are in a period where our knowledge of social and economic systems is significantly limited compared to what we claim to know, which is why terms like “uncertainty” and “interregnum” keep popping up. This is a result of the crisis of social self-knowledge. There are, of course, many obvious facts regarding economies and society that do not change. However, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 epidemic, and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, it is truly astounding how much we have learned about the world’s inner workings.
It turns out that some economies are more resilient than others, and that some are more fragile than we thought. Policymakers have been naively assuming things like the origins of inflation and the levels of economic stress that economies are capable of enduring.
Furthermore, there is the discrepancy between people’s mental models of economies and what the data purport to say. To sum up, we have serious doubts regarding our ability to accurately portray our societies to ourselves as things of knowledge. Forms of authoritative knowledge that assert to depict social workings and the social sciences’ current dilemma may both reflect this. This can be freeing in certain ways. It has the air of a post-technocratic society, where the mentality is “let us do it” and we’ll figure out how effective it was after the fact. “We don’t have a clue” ought to be a more prepared response.
The world is bracing for Donald Trump to shake things up in international relations, but the US has been doing that for a while. There was little change from the first Trump government under Joe Biden. Russia, China, and even middle powers like Turkey are all attempting to play the role of revisionist power in their own unique ways. Neither the rules of the international system nor our long-term national interests are the central questions being asked by any of them. The real issue is, “How far can we get away?” Once again, it is not uncommon for us to find out the answer to this question after the event. There will be a great deal of border pushing, and other wars are highly likely.
There will be an early flush of enthusiasm under Trump’s administration as they seize the opportunity to stabilise US-China relations and bring peace to Ukraine. The enormous global public goods issues, such as climate change, public health, and the soundness of financial systems, will remain unsolved, and the profound trust gaps between the superpowers will remain unbridged.
The Creative Era: Conversely, the unprecedented global mobilization of talent guarantees that cultural and technological innovation will persist at a dizzying rate. Avoiding both the dread and the joy, the financial hysteria surrounding artificial intelligence will subside, and advancements will be met with more measured enthusiasm. Innovations in art and technology will keep captivating audiences. Bollywood isn’t going anywhere. There will be a zenith to Taylor Swift’s fame. The new music, however, will have a considerably darker tone.
